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OPEN vs. COMP: Which Real Estate Innovator Can Turn Things Around?
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Key Takeaways
Opendoor hit $1.57B in Q2 revenues and first adjusted EBITDA profit in three years.
Compass posted $2.06B revenues in Q2, with 21% growth and a 63% EBITDA gain.
OPEN guides Q3 revenue down to $800-$875M, while COMP expects a sequential drop to $1.73-$1.85B.
The U.S. real estate market has been anything but predictable, putting pressure on companies that built their models around innovation and disruption. Two names that often come up in this conversation are Opendoor Technologies Inc. ((OPEN - Free Report) ), a pioneer in the iBuying space, and Compass, Inc. ((COMP - Free Report) ), a tech-enabled brokerage aiming to redefine the agent experience.
Both have faced challenges amid cooling housing demand, rising rates and profitability concerns, yet each maintains a unique approach to capturing long-term value. The question now is: which of these players is better positioned to stage a meaningful turnaround?
The Case for OPEN
Opendoor has demonstrated resilience by surpassing expectations in second-quarter 2025, reporting $1.57 billion in revenues and achieving its first quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability in three years. This marks reaching a milestone, demonstrating that the company’s deliberate cost discipline, efficient marketing and operating leverage can translate into financial progress even in a tough housing backdrop.
The company’s strong data infrastructure, AI-driven pricing engine and unique cash-offer product continue to differentiate it from traditional brokers. These capabilities position Opendoor to deliver speed and certainty — two qualities highly valued by sellers navigating a stressful real estate market.
Meanwhile, the company is undergoing its most significant strategic shift yet: evolving from a single cash-offer model to a distributed platform that empowers agents. Early pilots show promising traction, with listing conversion rates five times higher and twice as many sellers reaching a final cash offer. By partnering with agents, Opendoor expands its reach, diversifies revenues with capital-light streams like listing commissions, and reduces risk through hybrid products such as “Cash Plus.” These moves indicate that the company is not just chasing growth but building a scalable ecosystem for the long term.
Despite these advances, near-term headwinds remain heavy. Persistently high mortgage rates, weak buyer demand and record home delistings are weighing on transaction volumes. Management cut the third-quarter 2025 revenue view to $800-$875 million, which is roughly half of second-quarter 2025 levels, with expectations of another sequential decline in fourth-quarter 2025. Contribution margins are projected to narrow as older, lower-margin homes dominate the resale mix, undercutting the company’s prior goal of a year-over-year margin improvement. This shows that Opendoor’s financial progress is still vulnerable to macro shocks.
While the distributed platform and Cash Plus model are compelling, they are still in the early stages and will not materially impact the P&L until 2026. This creates a lag between strategic vision and investor payback. Opendoor also continues to rely heavily on asset-backed financing and recently issued $325 million in convertible notes, highlighting ongoing capital needs. Until transaction velocity recovers and new offerings prove durable at scale, Opendoor’s path to sustained profitability remains uncertain.
The Case for COMP
Compass has emerged as one of the few bright spots in a difficult housing market, delivering record-breaking results in second-quarter 2025. Revenues grew 21% year over year to $2.06 billion, while adjusted EBITDA surged 63% to $126 million, marking the strongest quarter in its history. Even more impressively, Compass outpaced the broader industry with transaction growth of 20.9% against a nearly 1% decline for the marketAgent recruiting has also been a standout. Compass added 832 principal agents in second-quarter 2025, its best recruiting quarter ever, while maintaining a retention rate of 97.5%. The company’s strategy of advocating for agents and giving them more freedom, such as marketing flexibility outside MLS restrictions, has struck a chord. Coupled with high platform engagement, averaging 24 weekly sessions per agent, Compass is cementing its reputation as a brokerage where top agents can thrive.
Beyond core brokerage, Compass is expanding into higher-margin businesses that enhance profitability. Title and escrow services delivered record revenues and attach rates, with some markets reaching more than 40% adoption and One-Click Title approaching 75%. The integration of Christie's International Real Estate is also progressing ahead of plan, creating a premium brand extension that can fuel affiliate growth. These adjacencies, combined with ongoing cost discipline — more than $600 million in OpEx savings over three years — position Compass to generate a stronger free cash flow and EBITDA in the years ahead.
Despite the strength, Compass faces challenges. The broader housing market remains soft, with elevated inventory and widespread price drops pressuring agent productivity and transaction velocity. Management’s third-quarter 2025 guidance reflects this reality, projecting revenues to fall sequentially to $1.73-$1.85 billion and EBITDA to drop nearly in half to $60-$80 million. This shows that Compass is not immune to cyclical swings, and its reliance on aggressive recruiting and acquisitions can strain margins if housing weakness persists.
Stock Performance & Valuation
As witnessed from the chart below, in the past six months, OPEN’s share price performance stands above COMP.
Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Considering valuation, over the past year, Opendoor has traded above Compass on a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio basis.
P/S (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
EPS Estimate Trends
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OPEN’s bottom line indicates a loss per share for 2025 and 2026. Over the past 60 days, estimates for 2025 have widened, while those of 2026 have contracted. The estimated value of 2025 indicates 35.1% year-over-year growth, while that of 2026 indicates a decline of 10.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COMP’s bottom line also indicates a loss per share for 2025, but profit for 2026. Over the past 60 days, loss estimates for 2025 have widened slightly, while earnings estimates for 2026 have increased. The estimated values of 2025 and 2026 indicate 61.3% and 214.6% year-over-year surges, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Wrapping Up
From the comparison, while Opendoor is making strategic shifts and showing progress, its business remains too exposed to housing market volatility, financing pressures and the slow payoff of new initiatives, making it less appealing for investors right now.
Compass, in contrast, has built strong momentum through market share gains, agent growth and expansion into higher-margin services, which provides a more stable foundation despite near-term industry headwinds. For investors, this suggests that Opendoor is best avoided until its path to sustainable profitability becomes clearer, while Compass can be held for its longer-term potential — though fresh buying should be approached with caution, given the uncertain housing backdrop.
OPEN carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), whereas COMP has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Image: Shutterstock
OPEN vs. COMP: Which Real Estate Innovator Can Turn Things Around?
Key Takeaways
The U.S. real estate market has been anything but predictable, putting pressure on companies that built their models around innovation and disruption. Two names that often come up in this conversation are Opendoor Technologies Inc. ((OPEN - Free Report) ), a pioneer in the iBuying space, and Compass, Inc. ((COMP - Free Report) ), a tech-enabled brokerage aiming to redefine the agent experience.
Both have faced challenges amid cooling housing demand, rising rates and profitability concerns, yet each maintains a unique approach to capturing long-term value. The question now is: which of these players is better positioned to stage a meaningful turnaround?
The Case for OPEN
Opendoor has demonstrated resilience by surpassing expectations in second-quarter 2025, reporting $1.57 billion in revenues and achieving its first quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability in three years. This marks reaching a milestone, demonstrating that the company’s deliberate cost discipline, efficient marketing and operating leverage can translate into financial progress even in a tough housing backdrop.
The company’s strong data infrastructure, AI-driven pricing engine and unique cash-offer product continue to differentiate it from traditional brokers. These capabilities position Opendoor to deliver speed and certainty — two qualities highly valued by sellers navigating a stressful real estate market.
Meanwhile, the company is undergoing its most significant strategic shift yet: evolving from a single cash-offer model to a distributed platform that empowers agents. Early pilots show promising traction, with listing conversion rates five times higher and twice as many sellers reaching a final cash offer. By partnering with agents, Opendoor expands its reach, diversifies revenues with capital-light streams like listing commissions, and reduces risk through hybrid products such as “Cash Plus.” These moves indicate that the company is not just chasing growth but building a scalable ecosystem for the long term.
Despite these advances, near-term headwinds remain heavy. Persistently high mortgage rates, weak buyer demand and record home delistings are weighing on transaction volumes. Management cut the third-quarter 2025 revenue view to $800-$875 million, which is roughly half of second-quarter 2025 levels, with expectations of another sequential decline in fourth-quarter 2025. Contribution margins are projected to narrow as older, lower-margin homes dominate the resale mix, undercutting the company’s prior goal of a year-over-year margin improvement. This shows that Opendoor’s financial progress is still vulnerable to macro shocks.
While the distributed platform and Cash Plus model are compelling, they are still in the early stages and will not materially impact the P&L until 2026. This creates a lag between strategic vision and investor payback. Opendoor also continues to rely heavily on asset-backed financing and recently issued $325 million in convertible notes, highlighting ongoing capital needs. Until transaction velocity recovers and new offerings prove durable at scale, Opendoor’s path to sustained profitability remains uncertain.
The Case for COMP
Compass has emerged as one of the few bright spots in a difficult housing market, delivering record-breaking results in second-quarter 2025. Revenues grew 21% year over year to $2.06 billion, while adjusted EBITDA surged 63% to $126 million, marking the strongest quarter in its history. Even more impressively, Compass outpaced the broader industry with transaction growth of 20.9% against a nearly 1% decline for the marketAgent recruiting has also been a standout. Compass added 832 principal agents in second-quarter 2025, its best recruiting quarter ever, while maintaining a retention rate of 97.5%. The company’s strategy of advocating for agents and giving them more freedom, such as marketing flexibility outside MLS restrictions, has struck a chord. Coupled with high platform engagement, averaging 24 weekly sessions per agent, Compass is cementing its reputation as a brokerage where top agents can thrive.
Beyond core brokerage, Compass is expanding into higher-margin businesses that enhance profitability. Title and escrow services delivered record revenues and attach rates, with some markets reaching more than 40% adoption and One-Click Title approaching 75%. The integration of Christie's International Real Estate is also progressing ahead of plan, creating a premium brand extension that can fuel affiliate growth. These adjacencies, combined with ongoing cost discipline — more than $600 million in OpEx savings over three years — position Compass to generate a stronger free cash flow and EBITDA in the years ahead.
Despite the strength, Compass faces challenges. The broader housing market remains soft, with elevated inventory and widespread price drops pressuring agent productivity and transaction velocity. Management’s third-quarter 2025 guidance reflects this reality, projecting revenues to fall sequentially to $1.73-$1.85 billion and EBITDA to drop nearly in half to $60-$80 million. This shows that Compass is not immune to cyclical swings, and its reliance on aggressive recruiting and acquisitions can strain margins if housing weakness persists.
Stock Performance & Valuation
As witnessed from the chart below, in the past six months, OPEN’s share price performance stands above COMP.
Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Considering valuation, over the past year, Opendoor has traded above Compass on a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio basis.
P/S (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
EPS Estimate Trends
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OPEN’s bottom line indicates a loss per share for 2025 and 2026. Over the past 60 days, estimates for 2025 have widened, while those of 2026 have contracted. The estimated value of 2025 indicates 35.1% year-over-year growth, while that of 2026 indicates a decline of 10.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COMP’s bottom line also indicates a loss per share for 2025, but profit for 2026. Over the past 60 days, loss estimates for 2025 have widened slightly, while earnings estimates for 2026 have increased. The estimated values of 2025 and 2026 indicate 61.3% and 214.6% year-over-year surges, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Wrapping Up
From the comparison, while Opendoor is making strategic shifts and showing progress, its business remains too exposed to housing market volatility, financing pressures and the slow payoff of new initiatives, making it less appealing for investors right now.
Compass, in contrast, has built strong momentum through market share gains, agent growth and expansion into higher-margin services, which provides a more stable foundation despite near-term industry headwinds. For investors, this suggests that Opendoor is best avoided until its path to sustainable profitability becomes clearer, while Compass can be held for its longer-term potential — though fresh buying should be approached with caution, given the uncertain housing backdrop.
OPEN carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), whereas COMP has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.